Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E6 0xe64b…eeef crypto 1740 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,272 (-16%) realized −$2,263 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%880W / 855L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day67.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$546
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 563 -27.0% -33.9% 42% 37% -22.2%
≤30d 1272 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 49% -7.0%
≤90d 1735 -7.3% -16.1% 51% 49% -8.2%
all 1735 -7.3% -16.1% 51% 49% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 49% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 46% -17.0%
15% -31.5% 42% -25.0%
20% -38.2% 38% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$2,263
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses880 / 855
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1735 / 1740
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day67.5
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1735 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 40¢ 16¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $14 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $12 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.60 · official $5.80 (match) · 3500 history records