Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe648…2e30 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 291d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% +$19
other 12% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.6% -0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤30d 5 +9.6% -0.9% 60% 60% -9.6%
≤90d 37 -7.6% -16.4% 51% 35% -6.5%
all 41 -10.8% -19.3% 51% 34% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 34% -9.9%
10% -27.0% 24% -18.5%
15% -34.1% 20% -26.4%
20% -40.5% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage291d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 10 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 09 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $5 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Apr 09 $4 +$6 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 09 $3 +$4 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Apr 09 $33 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 09 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 09 $3 +$4 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 07 $7 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$7 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 07 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 07 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 07 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Apr 07 $43 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 07 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 07 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Apr 07 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101? Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026? Sep 13 $20 +$7 +34%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Fact Check: Is the suspect transgender? Sep 08 $29 −$19 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $57 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $58 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $10 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $7 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $33 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records