Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe648…fb2e crypto 1450 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,212 (+1%) realized +$1,212 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate75%1082W / 368L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$146
7 days−$172
14 days−$172
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,888
other 7% +$1,275
politics 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -32.9% -39.3% 44% 33% -54.5%
≤30d 224 -4.3% -13.4% 70% 66% -13.7%
≤90d 1450 -4.3% -13.5% 75% 52% -9.9%
all 1450 -4.3% -13.5% 75% 52% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 52% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.7% 29% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 16% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$60 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,212
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1082 / 368
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1450 / 1450
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1450 Trades
no open positions (196 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $206 −$153 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$22 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 24 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $105 −$73 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $20 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 24 $31 +$11 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $10 +$8 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $31 +$11 +35%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 24 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 24 $21 +$15 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 24 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 24 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 24 $41 −$16 -40%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 24 $31 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 24 $21 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 24 $21 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 24 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 24 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 24 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 24 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 24 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 24 $127 +$40 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 24 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 24 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 24 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET May 24 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 24 $51 +$19 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $53 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $57 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $7 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $31 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $3 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 37h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $150 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 9¢ $27 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $46 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $32 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records