Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:51:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E6
0xe648…e4df
sports · 45 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$35 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$56
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)27 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 18 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$35
14 days−$35
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 75¢ 76¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Over 79¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 58¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 71¢ 70¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 63¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 74¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 82¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $66 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$2 -74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$3 -32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 +$2 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 $0 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 39% −$1
tech 26% +$1
crypto 17% −$42
other 16% +$7
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 75¢ $4 15m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 75¢ $4 15m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $7 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 63¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 58¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $2 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 19¢ $1 2h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $26 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $2 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 12h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $67 12h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 23¢ $0 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 17h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 94¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 86¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 52% 33% -26.7%
≤30d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 52% 33% -26.7%
≤90d 27 -22.5% -29.9% 52% 33% -26.7%
all 27 -22.5% -29.9% 52% 33% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 33% -26.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 30% -33.7%
15% -42.7% 19% -40.1%
20% -48.3% 15% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.12 · official $56.12 (match) · 100 history records