trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -7.7% | -16.4% | 50% | 50% | -11.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -17.9% | -25.7% | 44% | 44% | -28.8% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -23.9% | -31.2% | 36% | 36% | -29.3% |
| all | 13 | -26.5% | -33.5% | 38% | 31% | -32.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.5% | 31% | -32.4% |
| 10% | -39.9% | 31% | -38.9% |
| 15% | -45.7% | 15% | -44.8% |
| 20% | -51.0% | 8% | -50.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Yes | 63¢ | 62¢ | $52 | $51 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $56 | −$4 | -7% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $146 | −$94 | -64% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $126 | −$125 | -99% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $103 | +$34 | +32% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$44 | +44% |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $84 | +$19 | +23% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | Jun 16 | $190 | −$5 | -3% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 15 | $127 | +$64 | +50% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 09 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | Apr 22 | $10 | −$9 | -98% |
| Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? | Apr 22 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 14 | $110 | −$100 | -91% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026? | Feb 28 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |