Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:44:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe643…fc9d crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+16%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%11W / 13L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$9
other 15% −$5
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 46% 33% -2.8%
≤30d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 46% 33% -2.8%
≤90d 24 -16.4% -24.3% 46% 33% -2.8%
all 24 -16.4% -24.3% 46% 33% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 33% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 33% -12.1%
15% -38.2% 21% -20.6%
20% -44.2% 21% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses11 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +77%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -93%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$10 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 26m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 43m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.20 · official $2.20 (match) · 37 history records