Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe63c…9fe9 other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,630 (+3%) realized +$1,630 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate83%67W / 14L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$31
other 20% −$5
sports 14% +$1,586
crypto 12% $0
world 11% +$27
finance 6% −$12
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -5.1% -14.1% 82% 4% -11.2%
all 81 -0.4% -9.9% 83% 2% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -7.0%
10% -18.5% 1% -15.9%
15% -26.4% 1% -24.0%
20% -33.6% 1% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$762) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$7 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×37.76 per $1 lost it wins $37.76
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$1,630
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses67 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage134d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 100¢ 100¢ $128 $127 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Hart score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mitchell Robinson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Stephon Castle score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final Jun 14 $37 $0 +1%
Will Harrison Barnes score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Luke Kornet score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $42 −$16 -37%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $68 +$6 +8%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $42 +$8 +20%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $15 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 21 $62 −$8 -12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $92 −$20 -22%
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $142 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in April? May 01 $57 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 17 to April Apr 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 1 Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown last 52 days or more? Apr 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Apr 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Maduro" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Apr 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during Cabinet meeting on March 26? Apr 04 $99 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 24 to March Mar 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 24 $42 $0 +1%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $464 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 18 $2,812 +$6 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March Mar 13 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 10 to March Mar 13 $374 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 09 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March Mar 07 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 27 to Mar 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will the DHS shutdown end between February 28-March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $905 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 1 Mar 04 $2,247 +$6 +0%
Will Amazon dip to $192 in March? Mar 04 $50 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $3,178 +$23 +1%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 28 $211 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $961 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $992 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026? Feb 28 $1,011 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 24 to Ma Feb 28 $3,175 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 27? Feb 27 $3,167 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 27 $3,379 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $128 1h
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 100¢ $147 1h
Will Luke Kornet score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $102 16d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 16d
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rally? BUY No 100¢ $75 17d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $74 19d
Will Stephon Castle score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Final BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
Will Mitchell Robinson score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi BUY No 100¢ $30 19d
Will Josh Hart score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $40 19d
Will Harrison Barnes score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fina BUY No 100¢ $65 19d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $51 19d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $27 34d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 34d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 34d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success SELL No 29¢ $14 34d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY No 30¢ $12 34d
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success BUY No 30¢ $3 34d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 55¢ $22 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 55¢ $32 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 55¢ $1 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $30 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 64¢ $13 35d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 64¢ $19 35d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? SELL Down 73¢ $72 35d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 21? BUY Down 92¢ $92 35d
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? BUY No 0¢ $0 36d
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? BUY No 0¢ $0 36d
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? BUY No 0¢ $0 36d
Will NVIDIA Q1 adjusted gross margin be between 75% and 76%? BUY No 0¢ $0 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.31 · official $274.31 (match) · 357 history records