Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:38:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe63b…23b5 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$1
other 28% −$5
crypto 10% $0
economics 3% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -2.5% -11.8% 21% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -10.4%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 34
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage450d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 75¢ 74¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 89¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $9 −$1 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $111 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 09 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 07 $12 $0 -2%
Will Al-Hilal win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $4 $0 +3%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $37 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $37 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $37 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $41 12h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 20h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $10 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 3d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $3 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $4 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $37 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $41 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $41 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.08 · official $40.08 (match) · 138 history records