Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:32:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe63a…0679 world 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$33 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -80% what you keep after slip
Net edge-80%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day70.0pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$365now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$1
weather 11% +$5
other 9% −$41
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -73.5% -76.1% 25% 0% -61.6%
≤30d 4 -73.5% -76.1% 25% 0% -61.6%
≤90d 4 -73.5% -76.1% 25% 0% -61.6%
all 4 -73.5% -76.1% 25% 0% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover70.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -76.1% 0% -61.6%
10% ← realistic here -78.3% 0% -65.3%
15% -80.4% 0% -68.7%
20% -82.4% 0% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$15 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$365
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions28
Markets (closed)4 / 32
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day70.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 37¢ 40¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 78¢ 78¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? No 55¢ 60¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 88¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 44¢ 54¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 69¢ 83¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 20? No 86¢ 89¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? No 76¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 83¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 93¢ 93¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? No 69¢ 68¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? No 75¢ 74¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 20? No 66¢ 63¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $8 7m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 40m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 49m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 50m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $8 58m
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $8 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 57¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 58¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $36 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 76¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $40 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $365.19 · official $362.04 (match) · 70 history records