Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:28:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe637…157c other 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$24
politics 36% −$22
sports 10% +$43
crypto 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +4.0% -5.9% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -14.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×11.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage129d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 19 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $58 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $261 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $974 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $291 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $321 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $319 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $251 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $347 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 09 $266 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $351 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $339 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $356 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $281 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $246 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $258 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $337 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $271 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $279 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $335 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $301 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $305 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $281 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $56 22h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $47 22h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $47 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $50 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $50 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 21d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $261 23d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $261 23d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $303 24d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $303 25d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $303 25d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $303 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $291 26d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $291 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $316 26d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $317 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $321 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $321 30d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $249 30d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $249 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $319 30d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $319 31d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $315 31d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $315 31d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $327 31d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $327 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $355 33d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $355 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records