Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe637…f987 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$129 (-39%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$128
other 34% −$9
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 30% -3.5%
≤30d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 40% 30% -3.5%
≤90d 11 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 27% -54.8%
all 11 -10.6% -19.1% 36% 27% -54.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 27% -54.8%
10% -26.8% 27% -59.1%
15% -33.9% 18% -63.1%
20% -40.4% 18% -66.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage43d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$3 -25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 +$14 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $37 +$3 +9%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier May 04 $147 −$146 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 51m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 2h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 23h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 88¢ $17 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 39h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $13 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 40h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 38¢ $10 42h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $9 43h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $7 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 51¢ $27 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 34¢ $12 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $10 3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 26¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.91 · official $24.91 (match) · 34 history records