Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe633…f68f crypto 125 markets active 3d ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$737 (-8%) realized −$738 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate67%83W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$159
14 days−$159
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$137
sports 43% −$872
other 2% −$43
tech 1% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -53.1% -57.5% 24% 12% -43.8%
≤30d 17 -53.1% -57.5% 24% 12% -43.8%
≤90d 124 -13.0% -21.3% 67% 38% -17.5%
all 124 -13.0% -21.3% 67% 38% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 38% -17.5%
10% -28.8% 25% -25.4%
15% -35.7% 12% -32.6%
20% -42.0% 9% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$50 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$738
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses83 / 41
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage72d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 28¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $14 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $49 −$46 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $60 +$4 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $25 −$7 -28%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $80 −$3 -3%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $89 −$59 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 06 $63 −$62 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $131 −$130 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 5? May 05 $191 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 4? May 04 $183 +$8 +4%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $148 +$32 +22%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 03 $32 +$27 +86%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 03 $53 +$38 +72%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 01 $25 −$9 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 30 $89 +$28 +31%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $408 −$250 -61%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 30 $362 +$80 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7AM ET Apr 30 $126 +$55 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $201 +$15 +8%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $261 −$237 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $26 +$4 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 29 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 28 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 28 $90 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 28 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 28 $85 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 28 $77 −$38 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 28 $53 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 28 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 28 $37 +$21 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 28 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 28 $35 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 28 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 28 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 28 $76 −$57 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $9 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 29¢ $5 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 15¢ $5 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 45¢ $14 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 39¢ $15 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 40¢ $10 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $15 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 93¢ $60 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 84¢ $47 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $47 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $42 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $12 6d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? SELL Yes 23¢ $14 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.24 · official $2.24 (match) · 349 history records