Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe630…3c30 crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+24%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$29
other 11% −$11
sports 5% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 61% +10.8%
≤30d 18 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 61% +10.8%
≤90d 18 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 61% +10.8%
all 18 +22.2% +10.6% 78% 61% +10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.6% 61% +10.8%
10% ← realistic here -0.0% 50% +0.2%
15% -9.7% 50% -9.5%
20% -18.5% 33% -18.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records