Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:12:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe62f…fca5 sports 76 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$374 (+2%) realized +$389 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days+$1,763
14 days+$1,998
30 days+$1,819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,298
other 7% −$189
crypto 4% +$695
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.2% -3.0% 56% 56% +7.0%
≤30d 67 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 54% +4.3%
≤90d 67 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 54% +4.3%
all 67 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 54% +4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 54% +4.3%
10% -13.7% 54% -5.7%
15% -22.0% 54% -14.8%
20% -29.7% 45% -23.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$184 vs −$154 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$389
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 76
History coverage15d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 68¢ 64¢ $287 $272 −$15 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $290 +$127 +44%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $300 −$173 -58%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $200 +$100 +50%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 20 $495 −$489 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $642 +$350 +55%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $560 −$550 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $526 +$675 +128%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $693 −$679 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $277 −$270 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners AND Canada vs. Qatar: Canada Jun 19 $498 +$775 +156%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $508 +$555 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $458 +$574 +125%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $355 −$354 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $353 +$292 +83%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $355 −$350 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $357 +$576 +161%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 +$257 +51%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $599 +$404 +68%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $143 −$140 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 15 $495 +$452 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $203 +$101 +50%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $212 −$209 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $246 +$166 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$496 +483%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $99 −$98 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $166 +$137 +82%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $111 +$55 +50%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 13 $59 −$59 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $61 +$81 +134%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$5 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $61 −$22 -37%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $35 +$22 +62%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11 Jun 12 $61 +$30 +49%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 +$36 +71%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$22 +73%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 +$36 +72%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $51 +$40 +80%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $35 +$23 +65%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $35 +$26 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 68¢ $290 28m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 69¢ $290 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $128 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $54 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $59 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $14 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $300 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $200 11h
Spain leading at halftime? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Wil BUY 36¢ $214 11h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $495 25h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY 46¢ $498 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $642 28h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $560 29h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,201 30h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $526 32h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0 BUY 49¢ $502 46h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $693 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $277 2d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 39¢ $305 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners AND Canada vs. Qatar: Canada BUY 38¢ $498 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 AND Will Switzerland w BUY 59¢ $709 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners AND Will Czechia win o BUY 48¢ $355 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $1,063 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $508 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL $1 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY 54¢ $355 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $645 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 49¢ $353 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $458 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $355 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.23 · official $272.23 (match) · 118 history records