Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe62e…cc81 other 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$699 (+1%) realized +$824 · open −$125
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate59%180W / 126L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days+$228
14 days+$779
30 days+$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$742
sports 7% +$396
tech 4% −$578
politics 2% +$121
crypto 1% +$27
world 1% −$123
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.4% -11.7% 69% 54% -3.0%
≤30d 47 +13.0% +2.2% 64% 49% -1.3%
≤90d 178 +4.5% -5.5% 59% 39% -3.4%
all 306 -2.5% -11.7% 59% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 38% -6.8%
10% -20.2% 26% -15.7%
15% -27.9% 18% -23.9%
20% -35.0% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$470
Realized+$824
Unrealized−$125
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses180 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)306 / 312
History coverage157d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $152 $67 −$85 (-56%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $101 +$22 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $52 +$29 +55%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $102 +$9 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $631 +$262 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $103 +$18 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 23 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $204 −$120 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $203 +$85 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1,044 +$110 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $205 +$191 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $63 −$54 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $100 −$9 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $304 +$94 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $204 −$119 -58%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $104 +$40 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $804 +$200 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $104 +$202 +194%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $606 +$123 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $309 −$139 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $83 +$35 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $304 +$231 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $335 −$247 -74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $101 +$26 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $165 −$150 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $94 −$62 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $103 +$198 +191%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $69 −$55 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $57 +$24 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $63 +$29 +45%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $130 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $192 +$334 +174%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $101 +$32 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $95 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 29 $67 −$57 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $107 −$99 -92%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $156 −$60 -38%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $46 +$22 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $101 6h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $123 15h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $12 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $45 22h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 24h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 26h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 28h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $111 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 3d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $103 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $121 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $103 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $100 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $83 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $631 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $102 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $102 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $102 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $840 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.34 · official $470.34 (match) · 1185 history records