Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E6 0xe62d…9974 crypto 1193 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,425 (-4%) realized −$6,424 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%641W / 550L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day41.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,797
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 50% -5.2%
≤30d 316 -4.1% -13.3% 54% 45% -11.6%
≤90d 1191 -6.2% -15.1% 54% 43% -15.2%
all 1191 -6.2% -15.1% 54% 43% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 43% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 31% -23.3%
15% -30.6% 21% -30.7%
20% -37.4% 14% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$60 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$6,424
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses641 / 550
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1191 / 1193
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day41.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 70¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $297 +$138 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $306 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $101 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $304 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$45 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $305 −$43 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$46 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $207 +$32 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$57 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$34 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $38 +$22 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $82 −$60 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $155 −$91 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$11 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 04 $173 −$70 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 04 $152 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 04 $123 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 27 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 27 $41 −$10 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 27 $21 −$18 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 27 $122 −$24 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 26 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 26 $134 −$26 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 26 $31 −$22 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 26 $134 +$33 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 26 $52 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 26 $123 −$18 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 26 $154 −$13 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 26 $261 −$189 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $435 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $92 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $205 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $80 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $221 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $101 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $145 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $90 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $53 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.80 · official $8.80 (match) · 3500 history records