Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe62c…97e1 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,135 (+23%) realized +$2,143 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,699
7 days+$2,869
14 days+$3,360
30 days+$2,026
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$1,380
sports 39% +$3,399
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -14.7% -22.9% 42% 42% +34.2%
≤30d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 42% +10.4%
≤90d 33 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 42% +10.4%
all 33 -17.5% -25.4% 42% 42% +10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 42% +10.4%
10% -32.5% 42% -0.2%
15% -39.0% 36% -9.8%
20% -45.0% 33% -18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$394 vs −$183 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$2,143
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions3
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage18d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 100¢ $15 $31 +$16 (+104%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 60¢ 28¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-54%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes $5 $9 +$4 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $25 +$37 +146%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $164 +$153 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,793 +$3,675 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $993 −$983 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $107 −$105 -98%
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $188 +$161 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$81 +226%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $379 +$235 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $81 −$80 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $178 +$203 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $108 −$105 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $182 +$79 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $136 +$46 +34%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $415 +$292 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 06 $153 −$150 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $354 +$248 +70%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $812 +$216 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,358 −$1,333 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $51 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $25 6h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 40¢ $25 7h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $164 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $26 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $6,468 29h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $2,793 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $260 35h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $733 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 36h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 34¢ $51 37h
Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals BUY Yes $15 37h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $56 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $122 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $66 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $8 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $10 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.44 · official $62.45 (match) · 69 history records