Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:07:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe627…2027 world 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%25W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% −$2
other 15% −$2
politics 12% +$1
crypto 8% −$4
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 27% 0% -9.9%
all 52 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses25 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage474d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $73 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $42 −$3 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $31 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $42 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 09 $8 −$1 -6%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope? May 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 30 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 29 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 27 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 26 $7 $0 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win by 100–124 seats? Apr 26 $9 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $1 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? Apr 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bloc Québécois win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canad Apr 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 18–25? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 19 $21 $0 +1%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 17 $10 $0 -5%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $2 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $35 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $15 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $24 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 86¢ $38 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $42 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $35 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 48¢ $42 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.83 · official $35.83 (match) · 157 history records