Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe623…8fb5 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$4 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$5
sports 4% −$4
crypto 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -57.0% -61.1% 18% 12% -15.5%
≤30d 17 -57.0% -61.1% 18% 12% -15.5%
≤90d 17 -57.0% -61.1% 18% 12% -15.5%
all 17 -57.0% -61.1% 18% 12% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.1% 12% -15.5%
10% -64.8% 12% -23.6%
15% -68.2% 12% -31.0%
20% -71.3% 12% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -57% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 38¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 −$4 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.90 · official $57.05 (match) · 24 history records