Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:03:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe623…9800 crypto 352 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$784 (+3%) realized +$832 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%145W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$395
7 days+$445
14 days−$439
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$834
sports 22% −$896
other 2% −$50
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +10.3% -0.2% 48% 47% +0.4%
≤30d 330 +5.7% -4.4% 42% 41% -8.3%
≤90d 349 +3.9% -6.0% 42% 41% -9.3%
all 349 +3.9% -6.0% 42% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 41% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -18.0%
15% -23.2% 40% -25.9%
20% -30.8% 39% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$51 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$832
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses145 / 204
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions3
Markets (closed)349 / 352
History coverage38d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 349 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 16¢ $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 41¢ 43¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Down 47¢ 49¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$51 +99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$54 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$162 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$41 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$38 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $78 +$67 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$13 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$23 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$59 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$45 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $207 +$183 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$61 +118%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$93 +92%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$35 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$27 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$1 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $104 −$101 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$32 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$33 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$16 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$30 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$73 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$41 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$20 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$73 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$16 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$34 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$91 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $78 +$93 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$69 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$24 -47%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $205 −$200 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$40 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$79 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$45 -86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$56 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$25 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 55m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $41 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $155 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $22 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $63 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $63 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $39 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $77 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $37 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $32 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.42 · official $102.42 (match) · 1246 history records