Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:24:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E6 0xe622…9c26 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-12%) realized −$69 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 91% +$8
other 8% −$15
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 67% 50% -36.3%
≤30d 6 -8.2% -16.9% 67% 50% -36.3%
≤90d 7 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 43% -10.4%
all 7 -6.8% -15.7% 71% 43% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -10.4%
10% -23.7% 29% -19.0%
15% -31.1% 29% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 29% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage67d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $18 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $4 +$2 +56%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $499 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.51 · official $21.74 (match) · 64 history records