Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:47:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E6 0xe61f…9c64 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$547 (+41%) realized +$550 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate91%20W / 2L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$309
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$531
world 4% +$2
crypto 3% $0
other 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +87.0% +69.2% 67% 67% +49.0%
≤90d 16 +36.1% +23.2% 88% 62% +35.4%
all 22 +26.4% +14.3% 91% 45% +30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.3% 45% +30.7%
10% +3.4% 27% +18.1%
15% -6.6% 27% +6.7%
20% -15.8% 23% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$131 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$550
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses20 / 2
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage178d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 71¢ $122 $119 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $179 +$309 +172%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $229 −$225 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $144 +$270 +188%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $106 +$74 +70%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 21 $41 +$68 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $88 +$19 +21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 11 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 11 $17 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? May 11 $23 $0 +2%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 11 $17 +$10 +57%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $49 +$25 +50%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 11 $97 +$18 +18%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $37 −$36 -99%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $21 $0 +0%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? Feb 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 04 $25 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by 2025? Jan 08 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $123 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $179 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FULL SENSE 46¢ $229 17d
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees BUY Cleveland Guardians 34¢ $144 24d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Liquid 58¢ $106 31d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche BUY Golden Knights 37¢ $41 38d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $88 46d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $49 49d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $97 59d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $17 61d
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton BUY Joao Fonseca 65¢ $37 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $15 93d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $17 100d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 97¢ $17 108d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $12 111d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $15 117d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $23 135d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 147d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 155d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $21 159d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 99¢ $25 159d
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? BUY No 100¢ $25 169d
Netanyahu out by 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.33 · official $119.33 (match) · 43 history records