Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E6 0xe61e…493f other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized −$47 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,997per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$5,069now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$75
sports 30% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,069
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,997
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? No 98¢ 100¢ $3,003 $3,049 +$46 (+2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,020 +$20 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,000 +$5 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2,980 +$15 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $1,003 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 2h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 2h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 98¢ $1,000 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $99 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $81 32h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 100¢ $500 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $500 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,000 32h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Haiti? BUY No 100¢ $500 32h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Haiti? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,069.33 · official $5,069.33 (match) · 19 history records