Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E6 0xe61b…8b7a other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$9
politics 16% −$5
economics 6% −$1
sports 4% +$17
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +2.9% -6.9% 10% 7% -9.5%
all 105 +2.9% -6.9% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 7% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 7% -18.2%
15% -23.9% 7% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×8.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage87d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $45 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $114 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $331 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $330 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $283 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $283 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $277 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $285 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $272 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $278 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $277 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 28 $269 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $288 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $273 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $475 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $850 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $289 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $285 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $288 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $281 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $277 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $524 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 4h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 24h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 27h
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $191 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $34 11d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $34 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $45 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 13d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $77 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $63 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Solana reach $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $114 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $51 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $51 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $278 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $279 29d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $272 30d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $272 30d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $283 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.83 · official $190.83 (match) · 285 history records