Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe619…6342 sports 1385 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,105 (-1%) realized −$815 · open −$290
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%545W / 810L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Fees−$1,142est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1,006now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$250
7 days+$495
14 days−$174
30 days−$1,468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$563
other 16% −$2,620
world 1% −$303
crypto 0% −$26
finance 0% −$4
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -5.2% -14.2% 48% 48% -4.1%
≤30d 302 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 1318 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 39% -11.9%
all 1355 -13.6% -21.8% 40% 39% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 39% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 37% -20.4%
15% -36.1% 35% -28.1%
20% -42.4% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$42 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$1,006
Realized−$815
Unrealized−$290
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses545 / 810
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,142
Open positions30
Markets (closed)1355 / 1385
History coverage100d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 1355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 60¢ 90¢ $100 $150 +$50 (+50%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 57¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $85 $89 +$4 (+4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 69¢ $40 $73 +$33 (+83%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $50 $64 +$14 (+28%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-35%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 61¢ 52¢ $37 $32 −$5 (-14%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $15 $30 +$15 (+100%)
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-17%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $39 $29 −$10 (-27%)
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 7¢ $100 $27 −$73 (-73%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 18¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+125%)
Will Ecuador reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-32%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Saudi Arabia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 33¢ 5¢ $56 $8 −$47 (-85%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 2¢ $50 $6 −$44 (-88%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 +$34 +302%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$84 +82%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $208 +$98 +47%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$77 +217%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$65 +64%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$31 +62%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $61 +$144 +235%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $127 +$79 +62%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $148 −$93 -63%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 +$91 +92%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$68 -67%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$46 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$55 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$102 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $138 +$93 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 42¢ $45 2m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $36 32m
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 33m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $21 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $40 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 60¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $40 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $20 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $113 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $36 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 6h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $101 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 8h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $39 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $137 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,006.44 · official $1,006.49 (match) · 3167 history records