Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

E6 0xe617…d948 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 600d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3,445 (+6%) realized +$3,101 · open +$344

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip

Net edge-15%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$2,610per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$2,351now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$617

7 days−$570

14 days−$570

30 days−$570

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-3.4%	-12.6%	62%	38%	-16.4%
≤30d	8	-3.4%	-12.6%	62%	38%	-16.4%
≤90d	8	-3.4%	-12.6%	62%	38%	-16.4%
all	20	+3.8%	-6.1%	65%	25%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.1%	25%	-3.7%
10% ← realistic here	-15.1%	10%	-12.9%
15%	-23.3%	5%	-21.3%
20%	-30.8%	5%	-29.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$4,997) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +10% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$367 vs −$198 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage

Net worth$2,351

Realized+$3,101

Unrealized+$344

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage600d

Avg bet$2,610

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	88¢	$2,007	$2,351	+$344 (+17%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$41	−$17	-42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2,013	−$1,209	-60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1,906	+$171	+9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,606	+$298	+18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$1,468	+$141	+10%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$102	−$1	-1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$403	+$45	+11%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$10	+$3	+28%
Rams vs. 49ers	Nov 10	$6,875	+$286	+4%
Tulane vs. Memphis	Nov 08	$6,597	+$128	+2%
Capitals vs. Penguins	Nov 07	$5,610	+$249	+4%
Open de Moselle: Lorenzo Sonego vs Daniel Altmaier	Nov 07	$4,869	+$742	+15%
Will Al Khaleej Saudi Club win on 2025-11-06?	Nov 06	$4,498	+$371	+8%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?	Nov 05	$5,951	+$511	+9%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Nov 05	$4,997	+$460	+9%
Trump deportation executive order in first 100 days?	Nov 07	$1,200	−$49	-4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?	Nov 07	$1,200	−$78	-6%
House control after 2024 election?	Nov 07	$2,120	+$1,369	+65%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Oct 26	$1,300	−$31	-2%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi	Oct 26	$24	$0	-1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$51	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,120	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$850	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	5¢	$24	8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	8¢	$41	8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	32¢	$804	8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	78¢	$2,013	10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	91¢	$1,805	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	86¢	$50	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	42¢	$40	21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	51¢	$51	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	98¢	$1,101	24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$505	26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	88¢	$14	28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	91¢	$702	28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	91¢	$752	28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	36¢	$101	2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$102	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	92¢	$264	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$251	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	79¢	$184	2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	64¢	$152	2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL Yes	36¢	$13	2d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	27¢	$10	2d
Rams vs. 49ers	SELL Rams	100¢	$7,162	220d
Rams vs. 49ers	BUY Rams	96¢	$3,975	220d
Rams vs. 49ers	BUY Rams	96¢	$2,900	220d
Tulane vs. Memphis	SELL Tulane	100¢	$6,725	221d
Tulane vs. Memphis	BUY Tulane	98¢	$6,597	221d
Capitals vs. Penguins	SELL Penguins	100¢	$5,860	222d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,350.82 · official $2,350.82 (match) · 82 history records