Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E6
0xe617…f251
weather · 1304 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$9,104 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10,770 · open +$1,666
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$94,708
Realized−$10,770
Unrealized+$1,666
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1152 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions65
Markets (closed)1240 / 1304
History coverage103d
Avg bet$2,983
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 65 History 1240 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,762
7 days−$50
14 days+$84
30 days−$3,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 87¢ 96¢ $11,000 $12,174 +$1,174 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 89¢ 98¢ $11,000 $12,028 +$1,028 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 75¢ 89¢ $5,000 $5,917 +$917 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $5,000 $5,199 +$199 (+4%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Up 99¢ 100¢ $5,000 $5,046 +$46 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 88¢ 88¢ $5,000 $5,039 +$39 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5,000 $4,984 −$15 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? No 92¢ 88¢ $4,000 $3,832 −$168 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 96¢ 87¢ $3,000 $2,717 −$283 (-9%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $2,500 $2,637 +$137 (+5%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,328 +$328 (+16%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $2,000 $2,229 +$229 (+11%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 83¢ 90¢ $2,000 $2,160 +$160 (+8%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? No 93¢ 98¢ $2,000 $2,103 +$103 (+5%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $2,000 $2,098 +$98 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 92¢ 94¢ $2,000 $2,033 +$33 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,019 +$19 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,012 +$12 (+1%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,989 −$11 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 86¢ $2,000 $1,966 −$34 (-2%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 76¢ 91¢ $1,500 $1,811 +$311 (+21%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1,500 $1,519 +$19 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 64¢ $2,000 $1,512 −$488 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,476 −$24 (-2%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $1,500 $1,428 −$72 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 +$2 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2,008 +$291 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $3,004 +$54 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5,011 +$155 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $3,011 +$286 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 12 $7,018 +$481 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1,507 +$96 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,002 +$29 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,001 +$18 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,504 +$56 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $500 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,002 +$53 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2,010 +$142 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2,011 +$303 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $3,002 +$26 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $5,045 +$1,493 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $7,011 +$269 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,013 +$219 +22%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $2,001 +$18 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 9? Jun 10 $500 +$6 +1%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $200 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,001 +$16 +2%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1? Jun 10 $1,000 +$162 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $1,502 +$33 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $2,000 +$8 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $3,002 +$59 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $3,006 +$166 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 09 $5,000 −$4,134 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,003 +$37 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1,003 +$35 +4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1,002 +$40 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,001 +$10 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $3,005 +$115 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $2,502 +$20 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $2,010 +$265 +13%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6,000 +$821 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $1,001 +$36 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 07 $1,003 +$77 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,000 +$10 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 5? Jun 06 $500 +$4 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $1,001 +$21 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $2,000 +$10 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 06 $2,001 +$28 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $3,002 +$50 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $300 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,003 +$42 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 36% +$21,792
finance 29% −$50,121
world 14% +$22,069
weather 10% −$9,865
other 5% −$1,143
tech 3% +$10,964
politics 1% +$85
sports 1% +$922
economics 0% −$2,965
culture 0% −$842
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 99¢ $5,002 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,008 12h
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,001 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $3,004 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $500 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 24h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $500 24h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 92¢ $502 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,505 26h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 91¢ $3,011 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 97¢ $2,506 26h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 92¢ $2,506 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 99¢ $2,001 27h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 32h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 32h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June? BUY No 92¢ $2,007 32h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $5,018 32h
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 87¢ $2,008 40h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $2,007 40h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,509 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,000 47h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 86¢ $2,011 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $501 2d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 10? BUY No 95¢ $501 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 87¢ $2,010 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $1,003 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? BUY No 94¢ $1,507 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $1,502 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -3.0% -12.3% 92% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 141 -1.3% -10.7% 90% 21% -10.5%
≤90d 1058 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 12% -9.2%
all 1240 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 11% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 11% -9.8%
10% -17.2% 4% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,707.50 · official $94,706.97 (match) · 3500 history records