Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe60f…f4b4 other 645 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,644 (+1%) realized +$1,407 · open +$3,237
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate92%418W / 35L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$682per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$133,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,145
7 days+$1,145
14 days+$1,052
30 days+$1,963
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$134
finance 21% −$131
crypto 20% +$1,286
sports 18% +$295
tech 11% −$385
world 2% +$323
economics 1% +$376
culture 0% +$93
politics 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +7.7% -2.6% 100% 6% -5.4%
≤30d 123 +1.1% -8.5% 98% 4% -7.9%
≤90d 410 -3.1% -12.3% 92% 8% -9.9%
all 453 -2.8% -12.0% 92% 8% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 8% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 4% -18.5%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$965) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$353 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$133,914
Realized+$1,407
Unrealized+$3,237
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses418 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions192
Markets (closed)453 / 645
History coverage100d
Avg bet$682
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 192 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 86¢ $3,973 $4,917 +$943 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $4,418 $4,541 +$123 (+3%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $3,976 $3,999 +$23 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,936 $3,910 −$26 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $3,373 $3,724 +$352 (+10%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? No 85¢ 88¢ $3,180 $3,281 +$101 (+3%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $3,205 $3,177 −$27 (-1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $2,792 $2,959 +$167 (+6%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 83¢ 84¢ $2,500 $2,505 +$5 (+0%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $3,000 58¢ 48¢ $2,988 $2,444 −$544 (-18%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,183 $2,192 +$10 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,864 $1,994 +$130 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,952 $1,990 +$38 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,860 $1,988 +$128 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,980 $1,979 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,959 $1,977 +$18 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,959 $1,962 +$3 (+0%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,946 $1,954 +$8 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of June 15 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,959 $1,951 −$8 (-0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,796 $1,845 +$50 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $50 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $1,787 $1,839 +$52 (+3%)
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $1,660 $1,824 +$164 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,720 $1,770 +$50 (+3%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 75¢ 87¢ $1,497 $1,740 +$243 (+16%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $1,660 $1,680 +$20 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $996 +$4 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,960 +$40 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $1,984 +$16 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $2,728 +$285 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 16 $495 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 16 $487 +$13 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 1-7? Jun 16 $493 +$7 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 16 $502 +$8 +2%
Will England win? Jun 16 $560 +$440 +79%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 16 $975 +$25 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 16 $970 +$30 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $909 +$91 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 16 $1,973 +$17 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,882 +$118 +6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 16 $2,958 +$42 +1%
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 16 $4,994 +$6 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,200 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 08 $41 +$3 +6%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.90 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $81 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $104 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $496 +$4 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $624 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $718 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 06 $767 +$4 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $630 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,038 +$1 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $425? Jun 05 $1,502 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $1,984 +$16 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $290-$295 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Meta (META) close above $620 on June 5? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $620? Jun 05 $19 $0 +1%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 1 above $960? Jun 05 $25 $0 +1%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 1 above $970? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 1 above $980? Jun 05 $37 $0 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $465? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close at $620-$630 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $56 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $640? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $660? Jun 05 $66 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $460? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $650? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $455? Jun 05 $79 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 1 above $265? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will Micron (MU) close at $960-$980 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $93 +$2 +2%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 1 above $700? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $285-$290 on the final day of trading of t Jun 05 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Meta (META) close at $650-$660 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $395-$400 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $405-$410 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $140 +$2 +1%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 1 above $435? Jun 05 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? BUY No 99¢ $19 30m
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading o BUY No 99¢ $104 51m
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 52m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 99¢ $119 53m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of June 15 2 BUY No 99¢ $99 53m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $212 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 54m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 54m
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $142.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY No 95¢ $95 56m
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $395 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 57m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $158 57m
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $228 58m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $162 59m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $308 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $775 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $304 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $700 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $720 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $184 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $740 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $184 1h
Will Meta (META) close above $760 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $184 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $300 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $310 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 1h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $320 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $430 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $147 1h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $440 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $90 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? BUY No 88¢ $332 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? BUY No 83¢ $21 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $304 in June? BUY No 99¢ $117 1h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in June? BUY No 99¢ $326 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? BUY No 99¢ $371 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of June? BUY No 97¢ $612 1h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of June? BUY No 99¢ $167 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133,913.50 · official $133,913.57 (match) · 2170 history records