Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E6 0xe60e…11c5 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$284 (-40%) realized −$281 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$132
other 22% −$7
sports 14% −$93
finance 14% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 10 -50.1% -54.9% 40% 10% -59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.9% 10% -59.3%
10% -59.2% 10% -63.2%
15% -63.2% 0% -66.7%
20% -66.8% 0% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$49 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$281
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage200d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Over $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $93 −$92 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2PM ET Jan 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET Jan 08 $73 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET Jan 08 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET Jan 08 $132 −$65 -49%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 8? Jan 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 2? Jan 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 7 Dec 23 $8 +$2 +25%
Adobe (ADBE) Up or Down After Earnings? Dec 11 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Dec 10 $67 −$28 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 BUY Over $6 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 1h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $93 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 2PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $76 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $64 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $9 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $48 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $9 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $75 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $43 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $25 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $107 162d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 162d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 8? BUY Up 49¢ $5 163d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 8? BUY Up 49¢ $1 163d
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 2? BUY Down 99¢ $2 168d
Adobe (ADBE) Up or Down After Earnings? SELL Down $3 190d
Adobe (ADBE) Up or Down After Earnings? SELL Down $0 190d
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $1 191d
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? BUY No $0 191d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 7 BUY Yes 80¢ $8 194d
Adobe (ADBE) Up or Down After Earnings? BUY Down 52¢ $23 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.60 · official $152.60 (match) · 42 history records