Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe60b…8cb9 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-2%) realized −$62 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$195now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$63
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$113
other 46% +$52
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 64% -4.6%
≤30d 14 -3.5% -12.7% 64% 64% -4.6%
≤90d 38 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 58% -12.0%
all 38 -5.6% -14.6% 66% 58% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 58% -12.0%
10% -22.8% 42% -20.4%
15% -30.3% 29% -28.1%
20% -37.1% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$47 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$195
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage56d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $110 $115 +$5 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$6 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 +$11 +16%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $45 +$17 +37%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$32 -79%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$20 +39%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $98 +$43 +44%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $262 −$167 -64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $222 +$46 +21%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$34 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$157 +103%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $10 +$6 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 02 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $11 +$11 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 01 $112 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 01 $35 +$9 +24%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $142 +$54 +38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $151 +$15 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $45 +$11 +25%
Counter-Strike: Chicken Coop Esports vs regain - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $50 +$14 +27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $194 −$32 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $161 −$157 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $69 +$24 +35%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In G Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $80 +$23 +29%
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $113 +$14 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $56 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $81 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $77 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 33h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 34h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 34h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $70 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $141 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $98 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $95 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $71 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $268 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.70 · official $194.70 (match) · 131 history records