Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:25:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe60a…cb34 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,238 (-42%) realized −$4,228 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,018per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$3,567
sports 16% +$759
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% -35.1%
≤30d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% -35.1%
≤90d 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% -35.1%
all 4 +21.8% +10.2% 75% 75% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.2% 75% -35.1%
10% -0.4% 50% -41.3%
15% ← realistic here -10.0% 50% -47.0%
20% -18.8% 50% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$714 vs −$4,939 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$4,228
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,018
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $200 $190 −$10 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,953 +$1,372 +70%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $911 +$668 +73%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $519 +$101 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,503 −$4,939 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,579 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $3,326 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $404 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $304 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $434 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 64¢ $404 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $304 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $304 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $204 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $620 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $218 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $1,563 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $500 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 83¢ $500 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $500 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $500 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $794 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 10h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.93 · official $190.00 (match) · 31 history records