Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe60a…9f8f other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,352 (-3%) realized +$1,692 · open −$3,044
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$2,586per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$220est.
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$7,012now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$497
7 days−$670
14 days+$870
30 days+$870
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$1,636
other 44% −$3,830
crypto 1% +$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% -20.8%
≤30d 8 -10.1% -18.7% 38% 25% -6.6%
≤90d 9 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 22% -6.6%
all 9 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 22% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 22% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 11% -15.5%
15% -32.4% 11% -23.7%
20% -39.1% 11% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$600 vs −$295 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$7,012
Realized+$1,692
Unrealized−$3,044
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$220
Open positions6
Markets (closed)9 / 15
History coverage41d
Avg bet$2,586
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 27¢ 17¢ $7,871 $4,999 −$2,872 (-36%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,508 $1,501 −$7 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $377 $241 −$136 (-36%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,547 −$346 -22%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $389 −$87 -22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,549 −$774 -50%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1,140 +$633 +56%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $388 +$76 +20%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $388 −$173 -45%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $389 −$96 -25%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $21,220 +$1,636 +8%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,574 +$56 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1,201 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $302 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $775 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $70 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $1,672 13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $464 42h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $215 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1,140 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $293 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,549 10d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $389 10d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $388 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $388 10d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $388 10d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $389 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,549 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,547 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $472 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $500 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 95¢ $984 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,005 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,006 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 14d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $6,971 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,012.31 · official $7,012.75 (match) · 167 history records