Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe607…91fc other 176 markets active 2h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$507 (-34%) realized −$512 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%44W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$243now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$151
sports 34% −$262
politics 6% −$65
crypto 4% −$20
economics 2% −$3
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +47.2% +33.2% 44% 44% +14.9%
≤30d 67 +7.8% -2.4% 34% 33% -2.9%
≤90d 165 -19.0% -26.7% 27% 24% -47.5%
all 165 -19.0% -26.7% 27% 24% -47.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 24% -47.5%
10% -33.7% 22% -52.5%
15% -40.1% 22% -57.1%
20% -46.0% 21% -61.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$243
Realized−$512
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses44 / 121
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)165 / 176
History coverage55d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $120 $122 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $117 $119 +$3 (+2%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$13 +104%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$4 +51%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +36%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$8 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Aust Jun 17 $1 +$9 +769%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +216%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +119%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +113%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$9 +874%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $1 +$5 +474%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 02 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 02 $2 −$1 -55%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 02 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$3 +301%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $95 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY 15¢ $21 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $10 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $28 20h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $26 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 48¢ $13 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $13 40h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $2 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 2d
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 25¢ $7 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $1 2d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $1 2d
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY 39¢ $1 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 3d
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 11¢ $1 3d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $1 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $2 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $242.68 · official $262.68 · 348 history records