Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:21:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe605…914f weather 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$388 (+11%) realized +$660 · open −$272
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$271
7 days+$394
14 days+$456
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +27.1% +15.0% 58% 33% +21.0%
≤30d 38 -4.1% -13.2% 34% 26% +4.9%
≤90d 83 -7.3% -16.2% 28% 24% +5.9%
all 83 -7.3% -16.2% 28% 24% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 24% +5.9%
10% -24.2% 24% -4.2%
15% -31.5% 24% -13.5%
20% -38.2% 24% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$17 · ×3.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$660
Unrealized−$272
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage61d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? Yes 39¢ 30¢ $60 $46 −$14 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $258 $0 −$258 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 22 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $103 −$21 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $179 +$291 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $114 +$115 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? Jun 19 $79 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? Jun 18 $168 −$162 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $156 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $122 +$124 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $31 −$12 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $61 −$10 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $66 −$14 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $48 +$68 +141%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $163 −$84 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $67 +$34 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $33 −$5 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 −$26 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $71 −$69 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $107 +$155 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $113 +$118 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $79 −$62 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 07 $64 −$16 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $36 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $67 −$18 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $54 +$84 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 02 $19 −$3 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $37 +$51 +136%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 01 $16 −$3 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $54 −$53 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $52 +$103 +199%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 30 $64 −$41 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $17 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 28? May 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 26 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 27? May 26 $60 −$58 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 27? May 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 24 $10 −$4 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 23 $87 +$113 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 23? May 22 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $59 +$98 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $9 −$3 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 22? May 21 $21 −$13 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? May 21 $36 +$80 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? May 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? May 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 16 $7 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $13 −$8 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15? May 14 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 15? May 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? SELL Yes 42¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 39¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 43¢ $71 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $57 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 40¢ $123 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 31¢ $82 15h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $93 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $470 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 33h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 35h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 38h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 45h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $103 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 34¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 97¢ $230 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 31¢ $87 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 24¢ $43 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.24 · official $46.24 (match) · 369 history records