Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe605…ac5f world 907 markets active 1h ago coverage 613d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Covers last 612d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10,493 (+6%) realized +$11,987 · open −$1,494
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%318W / 567L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,664
7 days+$4,357
14 days+$2,569
30 days+$798
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1,574
other 25% +$1,678
politics 24% +$7,781
finance 4% +$514
sports 4% −$269
tech 3% −$1,632
economics 2% −$341
crypto 1% +$1,117
weather 0% −$122
culture 0% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.9% +19.4% 77% 46% +40.1%
≤30d 61 -17.4% -25.3% 31% 20% -6.7%
≤90d 200 -24.4% -31.6% 29% 20% -7.7%
all 885 -7.7% -16.5% 36% 27% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 27% -3.3%
10% -24.5% 22% -12.6%
15% -31.8% 17% -21.0%
20% -38.5% 13% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$76 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$1,883
Realized+$11,987
Unrealized−$1,494
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses318 / 567
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions22
Markets (closed)885 / 907
History coverage613d ⚠
Avg bet$193
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 885 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $500 $441 −$59 (-12%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $268 $263 −$5 (-2%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Yes 55¢ 99¢ $144 $259 +$115 (+80%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 25¢ 26¢ $225 $242 +$17 (+8%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $127 $125 −$2 (-2%)
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $161 $121 −$40 (-25%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? Yes 54¢ 40¢ $151 $112 −$39 (-26%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 5¢ 27¢ $19 $93 +$75 (+399%)
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 48¢ 41¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $59 $47 −$13 (-21%)
Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $53 $16 −$37 (-69%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 25¢ 1¢ $662 $14 −$648 (-98%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $29 $14 −$15 (-52%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $72 $13 −$59 (-82%)
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Yes 27¢ 2¢ $203 $13 −$190 (-94%)
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? No 16¢ 20¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+27%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $30 $5 −$25 (-82%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 25¢ 1¢ $100 $5 −$95 (-95%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $50 $2 −$48 (-96%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ 1¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-98%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? No 47¢ 0¢ $243 $0 −$243 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $2,469 +$1,666 +68%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 +$3 +9%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 19 $201 −$5 -3%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $400 +$24 +6%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $1,107 +$27 +2%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 17 $48 +$40 +84%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $100 +$36 +36%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $405 −$149 -37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $500 +$904 +181%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,000 +$64 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $266 +$124 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $1,407 +$1,635 +116%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $1,524 −$1,524 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $100 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $119 −$16 -14%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $173 −$36 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $1,743 +$993 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $309 +$14 +5%
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 11 $310 −$151 -49%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$59 -59%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $300 −$184 -61%
Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10? Jun 09 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $99 −$28 -28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,006 +$1,101 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $200 −$103 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $750 −$637 -85%
Megaquake by June 30? Jun 08 $409 −$340 -83%
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldw Jun 08 $900 −$307 -34%
Will Glasgow Warriors/Connacht win? Jun 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 +$830 +830%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership Jun 04 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $131 −$52 -40%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,121 +$1,852 +165%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $51 −$41 -80%
Netanyahu out by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $200 −$160 -80%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $523 −$420 -80%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $67 −$27 -40%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $500 −$500 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $105 −$57 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $800 −$800 -100%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $89 −$35 -39%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $100 −$47 -47%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 31 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $369 +$436 +118%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $171 −$171 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $143 43m
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $19 49m
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? BUY No 16¢ $9 49m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $98 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $134 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 95¢ $3,496 11h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 8¢ $19 11h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 13¢ $45 12h
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e BUY Yes 11¢ $104 12h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 25¢ $100 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $100 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $99 20h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 39h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 85¢ $196 46h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 48¢ $500 2d
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $463 2d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 86¢ $201 2d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $424 3d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 100¢ $907 3d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 86¢ $600 3d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 77¢ $162 3d
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $400 3d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? BUY No 47¢ $248 3d
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 29¢ $89 3d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL Yes 33¢ $227 3d
Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 7¢ $50 3d
Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 7¢ $59 3d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 51¢ $345 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,883.35 · official $1,932.47 · 3500 history records