Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E6 0xe603…dabd other 38 markets active 12h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-19%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$13
other 36% −$10
sports 18% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 57% -4.0%
≤30d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 57% -4.0%
≤90d 36 -27.0% -33.9% 47% 42% -28.1%
all 36 -27.0% -33.9% 47% 42% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 42% -28.1%
10% -40.2% 36% -35.0%
15% -46.0% 28% -41.3%
20% -51.3% 14% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage78d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $3 +$1 +32%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? Apr 12 $10 +$4 +38%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 06 $10 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $20 −$20 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Hawks Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 11h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 42h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $5 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 6d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 56d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 56d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 63d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 63d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 63d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 63d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 63d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 64d
Nets vs. Raptors BUY Nets 3¢ $3 65d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 67d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 67d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 67d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 75¢ $3 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 75 history records