Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E6 0xe600…f923 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+8%) realized +$34 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$28
world 25% −$4
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤30d 6 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
≤90d 6 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
all 6 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 50% +3.5%
10% -30.8% 50% -6.4%
15% -37.4% 50% -15.5%
20% -43.6% 33% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$17 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$34
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $89 $85 −$4 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 +$30 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$25 +60%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $22 +$22 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $92 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $94 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $95 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 13h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $49 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.43 · official $86.43 (match) · 21 history records