Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E5 0xe5fe…9ae5 crypto 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$918 (+2%) realized +$918 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate92%232W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$655
14 days+$1,138
30 days+$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$615
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +7.8% -2.5% 100% 22% -2.5%
≤30d 251 +1.3% -8.3% 92% 27% -8.5%
≤90d 251 +1.3% -8.3% 92% 27% -8.5%
all 251 +1.3% -8.3% 92% 27% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 27% -8.5%
10% -17.1% 8% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$209 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$918
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses232 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage24d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET Jun 18 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $203 +$53 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $202 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$25 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $203 +$44 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $203 +$50 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $204 +$67 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$35 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $202 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $201 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $202 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $202 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 515 history records