Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5fc…dbc6 sports 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$233 (-1%) realized −$229 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days−$841
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$2,105
other 26% −$2,281
crypto 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 50% -5.5%
≤30d 27 +18.8% +7.5% 63% 63% -14.5%
≤90d 117 -4.9% -14.0% 50% 47% -10.4%
all 121 -1.2% -10.6% 52% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 49% -10.2%
10% -19.1% 41% -18.8%
15% -26.9% 36% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 29% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$136 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage96d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $530 $526 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $352 +$257 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $604 +$635 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $625 +$657 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $505 −$498 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $522 −$517 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $487 −$397 -82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $3,584 −$3,546 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $61 −$1 -1%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $123 +$123 +100%
Will CD Palestino vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? May 27 $186 +$383 +206%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $636 +$237 +37%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $610 +$609 +100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,027 +$427 +42%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? May 22 $257 −$8 -3%
ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5 May 22 $859 +$429 +50%
Valencia vs. Real Madrid May 22 $46 +$46 +101%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $670 +$470 +70%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 May 21 $151 +$27 +18%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $1,611 −$1,411 -88%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Elena Pridankina vs Himeno Sakatsume May 21 $302 +$105 +35%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany May 21 $408 +$282 +69%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $504 +$220 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 20 $110 −$108 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $700 +$680 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 20 $353 +$108 +31%
Putintseva vs. Parry: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 May 16 $363 −$12 -3%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $407 +$520 +128%
Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 247.5 Apr 04 $268 +$330 +123%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Sou Apr 04 $147 −$41 -28%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 04 $372 +$133 +36%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA Academy vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 03 $517 −$35 -7%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs FOLHA AMARELA (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Apr 03 $879 −$46 -5%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs WW Team (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 Apr 01 $704 +$9 +1%
Celtics vs. Hawks: O/U 224.5 Mar 31 $168 +$187 +111%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Mar 30 $473 +$215 +45%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - BetBoom Storm G Mar 30 $340 −$132 -39%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 30 $540 −$217 -40%
1H Spread: Clippers (-8.5) Mar 29 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 29 $30 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 29 $50 +$4 +8%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO1) - DraculaN Gro Mar 29 $96 +$26 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 29 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 29 $34 +$31 +89%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 29 $3 +$6 +212%
Oklahoma Sooners vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (W) Mar 29 $45 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $535 8m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $609 22m
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 57¢ $352 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $604 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $625 15h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $505 21h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 66¢ $522 28h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 44¢ $9 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $9 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $48 36h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $421 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $5 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 65¢ $2,207 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $14 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $2 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $2 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $3 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $3 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 64¢ $1,349 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 48¢ $0 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Frances Tiafoe 50¢ $60 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 49¢ $10 15d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 49¢ $51 15d
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland BUY Finland 49¢ $123 16d
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 74¢ $229 21d
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 72¢ $18 21d
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 72¢ $3 21d
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 72¢ $227 21d
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-05-26? BUY No 71¢ $160 21d
Will CD Palestino vs. CD Riestra end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $186 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.16 · official $526.16 (match) · 346 history records