Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:29:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5f6…73fa sports 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$550 (-19%) realized −$550 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$635
other 9% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 50% -22.3%
≤30d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 50% -22.3%
≤90d 12 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 50% -22.3%
all 12 -4.2% -13.3% 58% 50% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 50% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -29.7%
15% -29.2% 33% -36.5%
20% -36.1% 17% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$261 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$550
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $209 +$31 +15%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $263 +$143 +54%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $51 +$115 +225%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $86 −$81 -95%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $596 +$285 +48%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $63 +$30 +48%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $67 −$63 -94%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $282 −$177 -63%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $508 −$485 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $201 +$20 +10%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $504 −$500 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $240 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $406 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $263 5h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $209 5h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $166 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 47¢ $86 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $881 19h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 19h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $91 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $93 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $63 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $28 20h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 85¢ $25 20h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $67 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 30¢ $105 22h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $282 23h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 2¢ $14 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $221 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 27h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 27h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records