Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5f5…a4c8 crypto 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-42%) realized −$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -85% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -88% what you keep after slip
Net edge-88%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$8
sports 47% −$2
other 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-86.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -85.1% -86.5% 0% 0% -77.2%
≤30d 5 -85.1% -86.5% 0% 0% -77.2%
≤90d 5 -85.1% -86.5% 0% 0% -77.2%
all 5 -85.1% -86.5% 0% 0% -77.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -86.5% 0% -77.2%
10% -87.8% 0% -79.4%
15% -89.0% 0% -81.4%
20% -90.1% 0% -83.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -85% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$2 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 60¢ 57¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots Yes 52¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -49%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 34m
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.98 · official $9.98 (match) · 13 history records