Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5f3…9948 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-6%) realized −$25 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$12
crypto 35% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-68.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -43.5%
≤30d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -43.5%
≤90d 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -43.5%
all 2 -65.4% -68.7% 0% 0% -43.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.7% 0% -43.5%
10% -71.7% 0% -48.9%
15% -74.4% 0% -53.8%
20% -76.9% 0% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$12 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the fight be won by submission? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-33%)
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Steve Garcia 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$18 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.94 · official $94.94 (match) · 13 history records