Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe5f3…e305 world 6 markets active 6d ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+3%) realized +$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$31
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% +$31
other 28% $0
sports 28% +$44
world 11% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +13.1% +2.4% 50% 50% +1.4%
≤30d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 33% 17% -6.8%
≤90d 6 +4.8% -5.2% 33% 17% -6.8%
all 6 +4.8% -5.2% 33% 17% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 17% -6.8%
10% -14.2% 17% -15.7%
15% -22.5% 0% -23.9%
20% -30.1% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$2 · ×15.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.72 per $1 lost it wins $15.72
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 10 $139 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $117 +$31 +26%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $116 −$5 -4%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 02 $658 +$44 +7%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 02 $659 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? May 31 $646 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $60 6d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $17 6d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $62 6d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $69 6d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $70 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $42 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $74 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $33 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 6d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $55 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $50 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $56 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $60 8d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $55 8d
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Belgium 94¢ $658 14d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? SELL No 91¢ $659 14d
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? BUY No 91¢ $659 14d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $646 16d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $646 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records