Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe5f0…dc1d
sports · 215 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$42,257 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52,875 · open −$10,618
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$75,989
Realized+$52,875
Unrealized−$10,618
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses68 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$6,184
Open positions32
Markets (closed)205 / 215
Avg bet$1,881
Trades / day289.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 32 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120,258
7 days+$7,645
14 days+$52,875
30 days+$52,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $13,809 $13,650 −$159 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $10,195 $8,579 −$1,616 (-16%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 14¢ 80¢ $1,400 $8,050 +$6,650 (+475%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $8,200 $7,900 −$300 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 18¢ $15,162 $7,708 −$7,454 (-49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $6,258 $6,338 +$80 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5,290 $5,150 −$140 (-3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 20¢ $4,068 $3,695 −$374 (-9%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $2,500 $2,450 −$50 (-2%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 43¢ $2,163 $2,163 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 27¢ 23¢ $2,412 $2,083 −$328 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1,292 $1,715 +$423 (+33%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $1,614 $1,413 −$200 (-12%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 25¢ 4¢ $8,035 $1,209 −$6,826 (-85%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,045 $1,180 +$135 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 66¢ $674 $732 +$58 (+9%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Over 8¢ 8¢ $482 $435 −$48 (-10%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $500 $425 −$75 (-15%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 82¢ 98¢ $237 $283 +$46 (+19%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $253 $228 −$25 (-10%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $260 $190 −$70 (-27%)
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 52¢ 44¢ $118 $100 −$18 (-15%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $80 $90 +$10 (+13%)
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 41¢ 26¢ $135 $84 −$51 (-38%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $139 $69 −$70 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5,128 +$6,872 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3,800 +$7,202 +190%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $116 +$104 +89%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 12 $379 +$626 +165%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $7,167 +$4,833 +67%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $9,194 +$6,806 +74%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4,474 −$4,400 -98%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 12 $121 −$120 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $738 −$720 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $1,829 −$1,800 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9,618 +$4,381 +46%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,443 +$3,557 +146%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3,265 −$3,200 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $48 −$47 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $362 −$352 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $1,262 −$1,233 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $9,477 −$9,466 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2,100 −$2,100 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8,600 −$8,600 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $79 −$78 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $4,314 +$2,906 +67%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $2,921 +$4,979 +170%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $706 −$687 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $10,441 +$8,187 +78%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $1,010 −$998 -99%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $132 −$129 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $871 +$540 +62%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $4,228 −$4,149 -98%
Azerbaijan vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $57 −$57 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $47 −$47 -100%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Angola vs. Mauritania: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $290 −$290 -100%
Canada vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Albania vs. Luxembourg: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $263 −$263 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 81% +$48,078
other 19% −$4,753
crypto 0% −$1,068
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $48 2m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $89 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $321 4m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $9 5m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $4 5m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $19 5m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $2,003 5m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $4 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $58 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1,131 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $70 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $356 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $356 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3,173 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $466 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $156 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1,041 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $1 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $156 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $2 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $557 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -40.3% -46.0% 27% 27% -7.5%
≤30d 205 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% +3.0%
≤90d 205 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% +3.0%
all 205 -19.2% -26.9% 33% 33% +3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover289.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 33% +3.0%
10% -33.9% 33% -6.9%
15% ← realistic here -40.3% 33% -15.9%
20% -46.1% 31% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75,989.06 · official $75,989.13 (match) · 3500 history records