Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:18:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe5ef…d5dd other 11 markets active 8h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$81 (+14%) realized +$82 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$122
sports 19% −$24
crypto 5% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.4% +28.0% 100% 100% +28.0%
≤30d 7 +23.5% +11.7% 71% 57% +14.5%
≤90d 7 +23.5% +11.7% 71% 57% +14.5%
all 7 +23.5% +11.7% 71% 57% +14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 57% +14.5%
10% +1.1% 57% +3.6%
15% -8.7% 57% -6.4%
20% -17.7% 43% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$32 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$42 +41%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $51 +$81 +158%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $51 +$1 +1%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +89%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $20 +$15 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 11h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 11h
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova SELL Harriet Dart 42¢ $52 8d
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova BUY Harriet Dart 40¢ $51 8d
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 54¢ $41 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov SELL Marin Cilic 36¢ $36 8d
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Marin Cilic 20¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.44 · official $299.44 (match) · 16 history records