Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe5ef…9e7a sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (116 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$120,706 (+9%) realized +$121,596 · open −$890
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%67W / 175L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,080per market
Trades / day116.0pace
Fees−$20,121est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$50,877
crypto 4% −$2,755
other 0% +$1,049
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (116 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -81.6% -83.3% 9% 9% -97.6%
≤30d 242 -33.5% -39.8% 28% 27% -33.0%
≤90d 242 -33.5% -39.8% 28% 27% -33.0%
all 242 -33.5% -39.8% 28% 27% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.8% 27% -33.0%
10% -45.6% 27% -39.4%
15% ← realistic here -50.8% 27% -45.3%
20% -55.6% 27% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$9,301) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9,651 vs −$6,229 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1,607
Realized+$121,596
Unrealized−$890
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses67 / 175
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$20,121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)242 / 165
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$8,080
Trades / day116.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Under 47¢ 30¢ $2,496 $1,607 −$890 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 171 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 16 $4,925 −$4,925 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $853 −$853 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-7.5) Jun 16 $4,651 −$4,651 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $510 −$510 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 Jun 16 $30,600 −$30,600 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) Jun 16 $9,301 −$9,301 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 16 $30,000 −$30,000 -100%
Nets vs. Raptors: O/U 217.5 Jun 16 $4,899 −$4,899 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-7.5) Jun 16 $146 −$146 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Big Bash League: Sydney Thunder vs Hobart Hurricanes (Game 1) Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
Rockets vs. Nets Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Hornets (-3.5) Jun 16 $4,926 −$4,926 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4PM ET Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
Mercury vs. Aces Jun 16 $130 −$130 -100%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
New York Liberty vs. PortlandFire: O/U 174.5 Jun 16 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 4PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $999 −$999 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 Jun 16 $4,973 −$4,973 -100%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Jun 16 $5,800 −$5,800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $842 −$842 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$160 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 223.5 Jun 16 $15,255 −$15,255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $920 −$920 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 Jun 16 $9,736 −$9,736 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 16 $7,050 −$7,050 -100%
Pacers vs. Raptors: O/U 224.5 Jun 16 $159 −$159 -100%
Maryland Terrapins vs. USC Trojans Jun 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) Jun 16 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 16 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $768 −$768 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2,500 −$2,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 Jun 16 $4,800 −$4,800 -100%
Nuggets vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5 Jun 16 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 12PM ET Jun 16 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 214.5 Jun 16 $19,965 −$19,965 -100%
Spread: Chargers (-3.5) Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2,535 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $311 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $804 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,606.51 · official $1,606.51 (match) · 3500 history records