Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:38:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe5ef…e724 crypto 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 643d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+0%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate93%117W / 9L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% +$47
crypto 39% +$28
other 0% +$15
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% +$3
world 0% −$11
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +2.7% -7.1% 100% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 28 +1.2% -8.4% 100% 4% -9.4%
all 126 +4.4% -5.5% 93% 21% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 21% -9.3%
10% -14.6% 10% -18.0%
15% -22.8% 8% -25.9%
20% -30.4% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.92 per $1 lost it wins $3.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

643d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses117 / 9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)126 / 131
History coverage643d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? Jun 10 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 01 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 26 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 17 $198 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1? May 04 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $191 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? Apr 27 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? Apr 22 $190 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? Apr 19 $192 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $204 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 22 $193 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? Mar 18 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $202 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $197 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $203 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 2 Feb 23 $194 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 17? Feb 19 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 16 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $198 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 12? Feb 12 $201 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $195 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $196 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 7 Feb 07 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $196 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98,000 on January 31? Feb 01 $197 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $193 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? BUY No 93¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $3 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $108 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $109 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $108 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $109 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $114 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $6 23d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 97¢ $3 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $196 32d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 83¢ $5 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $198 41d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $5 45d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in May? BUY No 95¢ $5 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $195 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $191 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $197 59d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $190 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $192 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 13? BUY No 100¢ $200 69d
Will Elon Musk post 1680-1759 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 71d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $7 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $202 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $202 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $200 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $202 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $204 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.88 · official $115.89 (match) · 308 history records