Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5ee…f710 tech 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,305 (-60%) realized −$4,305 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$154
14 days−$4,475
30 days−$4,485
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$4,601
other 7% +$131
tech 0% −$13
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-78.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.1% +11.4% 100% 67% +10.0%
≤30d 20 -76.3% -78.6% 20% 10% -66.1%
≤90d 20 -76.3% -78.6% 20% 10% -66.1%
all 20 -76.3% -78.6% 20% 10% -66.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -78.6% 10% -66.1%
10% -80.6% 5% -69.4%
15% -82.5% 5% -72.3%
20% -84.2% 0% -75.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -90% → late -63% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$290 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage16d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $218 +$109 +50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $195 +$23 +12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $4,823 −$4,628 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 26, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 23, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 18, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 17, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 16, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $1,616 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $301 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $218 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $218 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $195 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $195 9d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 26, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 25, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 18, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 17, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 11, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 10, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will SpaceX IPO on June 8, 2026? BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 20¢ $4,535 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $1 14d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes $1 14d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 18¢ $288 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,620 14d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,616 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records