Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

E5 0xe5eb…c512 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$190 (+2%) realized +$314 · open −$124

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip

Net edge-64%after slip

Net WR24%break-even

Win rate24%4W / 13L

Whale WR60%big bets

Drawdown89%max

Avg bet$615per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit15%portable

Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$295

14 days−$295

30 days−$960

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +24%

net ROI/market (all)-63.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	5	-71.3%	-74.0%	20%	20%	-88.7%
≤90d	11	-81.3%	-83.1%	9%	9%	-90.7%
all	17	-59.2%	-63.1%	24%	24%	-7.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-63.1%	24%	-7.9%
10%	-66.6%	24%	-16.7%
15%	-69.8%	12%	-24.7%
20%	-72.8%	6%	-32.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -90% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -59% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 60% (≥$707) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -39% → late -77% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$839 vs −$241 · ×3.48 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.07 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage

Net worth$136

Realized+$314

Unrealized−$124

Win rate (resolved)24%

Wins / losses4 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)60%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 20

History coverage98d

Avg bet$615

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown89%

Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$114	$95	−$20 (-17%)
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	6¢	3¢	$100	$41	−$59 (-59%)
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	3¢	0¢	$46	$1	−$45 (-98%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 18	$150	−$145	-97%
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 18	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Jun 18	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?	May 31	$96	+$42	+43%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?	May 31	$723	−$707	-98%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?	May 17	$26	−$26	-98%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	May 17	$198	−$194	-98%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	May 17	$35	−$14	-40%
Will Munster win?	May 09	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	May 09	$4	−$4	-98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 12	$127	−$127	-100%
Will David Lipsky win the 2026 Valspar Championship?	Mar 22	$149	−$149	-100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 21	$199	−$199	-100%
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)	Mar 16	$4,164	+$1,025	+25%
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score	Mar 16	$2,233	+$1,931	+86%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	Mar 15	$1,176	+$357	+30%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	Mar 15	$2,498	−$1,322	-53%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	16¢	$117	1h
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	6¢	$103	1h
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	3¢	$150	2d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	3¢	$47	3d
Will Rickie Fowler win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	1¢	$51	3d
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	3d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?	BUY Yes	21¢	$496	20d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?	BUY Yes	23¢	$99	20d
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge?	BUY Yes	35¢	$128	20d
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	21¢	$26	34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	SELL Yes	0¢	$4	34d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	SELL Yes	17¢	$21	34d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	BUY Yes	5¢	$198	36d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	BUY Yes	27¢	$35	42d
Will Munster win?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	42d
Will Munster win?	BUY Yes	53¢	$51	42d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?	SELL Yes	100¢	$137	43d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?	BUY Yes	69¢	$96	43d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09?	BUY Yes	27¢	$4	43d
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	9¢	$127	69d
Will David Lipsky win the 2026 Valspar Championship?	BUY Yes	18¢	$149	90d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-21?	BUY Yes	33¢	$199	91d
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)	SELL Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	100¢	$5,189	96d
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5)	BUY Rayo Vallecano de Madrid	80¢	$4,164	96d
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,164	96d
Brentford FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$2,233	96d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,533	97d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	BUY Yes	77¢	$1,176	97d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	SELL Yes	24¢	$512	97d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?	SELL Yes	23¢	$665	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.38 · official $136.38 (match) · 34 history records