Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe5e9…3166 sports 426 markets active 2h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,713 (-8%) realized −$1,692 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%218W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,678
other 7% −$24
politics 3% $0
crypto 1% −$16
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +2.7% -7.1% 62% 57% +7.7%
≤30d 28 -6.8% -15.7% 54% 50% -10.9%
≤90d 31 -11.7% -20.1% 52% 48% -20.6%
all 424 -13.2% -21.4% 51% 43% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 43% -16.7%
10% -29.0% 35% -24.7%
15% -35.8% 28% -32.0%
20% -42.1% 21% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$29 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,692
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses218 / 206
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)424 / 426
History coverage568d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins AND Washington Nationals vs. Balt Jun 28 $16 +$15 +94%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $10 +$11 +110%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $32 +$3 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 27 $8 +$5 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 −$17 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $15 +$15 +101%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $10 +$10 +103%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 25 $16 +$6 +39%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $10 +$6 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6 +$3 +49%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 3rd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $2 $0 -25%
Will Cameron Boozer be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$3 +11%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $18 −$18 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 −$1 -6%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $10 +$10 +103%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $18 −$17 -99%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 05 $18 +$10 +56%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $18 −$18 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. Toronto Tempo May 30 $14 −$14 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $21 −$21 -99%
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Apr 05 $33 −$33 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 05 $26 +$7 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals Mar 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Wizards vs. Pelicans Mar 08 $68 −$68 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flames Mar 08 $50 +$18 +37%
Clippers vs. Spurs Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Suns Mar 07 $36 +$19 +54%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Spurs vs. Pistons Feb 24 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-1.5) Feb 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Feb 23 $70 −$65 -92%
Will NAC Breda win on 2025-09-20? Feb 23 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-13? Feb 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Jets vs. Saints Feb 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Feb 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25? Feb 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Reds vs. Dodgers Feb 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Working Class" during Fighting Oligarchy spee Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Billionaire" 7+ times during Fighting Oligarc Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Vermont" during Fighting Oligarchy speech on Feb 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins AND Washington Nationals vs. Balt SELL 99¢ $31 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins AND Washington Nationals vs. Balt BUY 50¢ $16 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 92¢ $21 3h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 43¢ $10 5h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $25 7h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 76¢ $19 8h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Phoenix Mercury 33¢ $10 8h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 41¢ $12 9h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 96¢ $12 26h
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $8 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 6¢ $3 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 30¢ $15 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $15 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 95¢ $20 2d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 BUY 49¢ $12 3d
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky SELL Chicago Sky 95¢ $22 3d
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 68¢ $16 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Haiti 100¢ $16 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $9 3d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 64¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 57¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 57¢ $10 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $6 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Milwaukee Brewers 94¢ $26 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 72¢ $20 4d
Will Mikel Brown Jr. be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 996 history records